It's not official yet (the Reds have scheduled a press conference for Wednesday), but by all reports Joey Votto is staying in Cincinnati for the long haul.
Naturally the national baseball media is ripping the organization for giving one player such a lengthy contract worth hundred of millions of dollars (10 years, $225 million reportedly). Of course these are the same pundits who decried how the Reds would never be able to sign the NL 2010 MVP at all.
While writers like Fox Sports.com's Ken Rosenthal make valid points, they don't have the insight of writers who cover the team day in and day out like The Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay. Feel free to read and then compare and contrast.
While it's true some of these mega deals don't exactly work out (Alex Rodriquez, Ken Griffey, Jr., Alphonso Soriano, Barry Zito, and Johan Santana). Others like Albert Pujols (his first long-term deal with St. Louis) and, yes, Barry Bonds (after leaving Pittsburgh for San Francisco) have paid dividends. More recent examples include Evan Longoria, Matt Kemp, and -- despite recent events -- Ryan Braun.
Comparing the Votto contract with pitchers who received mega deals is comparing apples to oranges since there's always a health risk with pitchers' arms. In Votto, the Reds have locked up someone who has put up some of the top offensive numbers in the National League for three-straight years, is not injury prone, and is a perennial MVP and Gold Glove candidate. He's also, 28 and entering the prime of his career. Will he be worth his hefty salary at age 36, 37 or 38? Most likely not. But I'm sure there were those who thought Pujols wouldn't continue to put up MVP numbers when he reached his middle 30s either. The guy in St. Louis who had the foresight to ink Pujols to his first big contract in 2004 (7 years, $100 million), not coincidentally is the same guy who signed Votto, Walt Jocketty.
Now what Votto's deal may mean is the Reds will part company at the end of 2012 with second baseman Brandon Phillips. While owner Bob Castellini didn't rule out signing Phillips as well, one internet report says the sides are far apart. As much as it would pain me to see Brandon leave, the signing of Votto is more important. It signals to the fan base that the organization wasn't about to let what is potentially one of the franchise's greatest players simply head for greener pastures.
I'll contend the Angels contract to Pujols this offseason is a greater risk than what the Reds are committing to Votto. Sure the Angels are a big-market team with a lucrative local TV deal, but even big budget teams can be hamstrung by bad contracts. Just look at the Yankees who clearly overpaid for Alex Rodriguez and couldn't get rid of A.J. Burnett fast enough. Certainly Pujols' career will benefit from the American League's designated hitter rule, but by year six or seven of his 10-year deal with the Angels, it's very likely Pujols will be earning his $20-plus million-a-year salary based completely on reputation.
There are several keys to this Votto deal working out. One is the payroll must continue to increase. That's done two ways, local TV revenue and attendance. In reading Mr. Fay's piece, you get the impression the Reds are banking on both. The increased budget will enhance the franchise's ability to continue to sign it's own players, but be able to pick and choose who they keep. Which is why it's just as important the organization continue to draft and develop players as well. This year the team can run out a lineup in which six of the starting eight are home grown. Both these elements are crucial if Votto is to serve as the cornerstone that -- like Pujols -- transforms the Reds to perennial playoff contenders.
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