Moving Chapman from Bullpen is Risky Business

As comic book icon Stan Lee would say, "Greetings True Believers!" It has been almost two months since my last post.

The end to the 2012 season for the Reds was painful to watch and even more painful to write about.  Which is why I didn't.  Bottom line it was a missed opportunity for the Reds organization.

Granted they at least won a few playoff games as opposed to 2010 and we'll always wonder what would have happened had ace starting pitcher Johnny Cueto been healthy to take the mound in the Giants series.  But after watching San Francisco drive a stake into the heart of the seemingly un-killable Cardinals in the NLCS and then sweep the Tigers to capture the World Series--it's easy to ask what might have been.

But no use dwelling on the past, it's time to shift the focus to 2013.  Next week marks the annual MLB Winter Meetings where many rumors will circulate regarding free agent signings and possible trades.  For the Reds, the week culminates with Reds Fest.  By then, we may start to have a handle on what the 2013 squad will look like come February in Goodyear, Arizona.

After a rather quiet start to the Hot Stove season, the Reds made headlines as several reports indicated they were close to re-signing reliever Jonathan Broxton to a 3-year deal.  If and when that becomes official what will be most interesting is what general manager Walt Jocketty says afterwards.  As in whether Broxton will be the teams closer, thus paving the way to--yet again--move Aroldis Chapman to the starting rotation.

If the playoffs showed anything, it exposed the Reds depth at starting pitcher.  My apologies to Mike Leake and all Mike Leake fans but his NLDS Game 4 failure versus the Giants may very well be behind this move.  Recent baseball playoff history shows the teams with hard throwers rather than those that pitch to contact end up advancing come October (Bronson Arroyo's Game 2 outing aside).

One thing we know Chapman can do is throw hard.  Whether he has the command of his secondary pitches and the durability to withstand the 162-game season is the huge question mark.  But with Tony Cingrani and Daniel Corcino not ready for the major leagues and a tight budget keeping the team from dipping into the free agent pool... it's easy to see why Jocketty would go this route short of making a trade for a starter.

What concerns me is Chapman's health.  I know he was a starter when he pitched for Team Cuba before defecting, but this is guy who has a history of shoulder ailments and has never spent a full minor league season starting.  The Rangers tried to convert Neftali Feliz last year, after 7 starts he hurt his elbow and ended up having Tommy John surgery.  This was a guy who had saved 40 and 32 games respectively the two previous years and was 4 years removed from being a full-time starter in the minor leagues.

The Yankees and Red Sox thought better of moving Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Paplebon to the starting rotation.  So say Chapman is a part of the rotation to begin 2013.  If he doesn't blow out his arm first, more than likely he'll be on an innings limit.  Once he reaches it, he'll have to be shutdown for the year, which could result in what happened to the Nationals Stephen Strasburg this past season.  Washington went into the postseason without its best pitcher.  Cincinnati could ill afford to go into October without Chapman.  Now the Reds could send Chapman to the bullpen late in the year if he was getting close to his innings limit, but should an injury occur in the playoffs as it did to Cueto, Chapman would be unavailable to start.

So, again, what Jocketty says definitively about Broxton's role will be interesting.  Chapman could try and crack the starting rotation in Spring Training, but if he doesn't pitch well, he could move back to the pen.  Either way because of the innings limit he would be under, if the Reds make the playoffs in 2013 Chapman's role would likely be as a reliever.  Meaning the club could be one pulled oblique muscle from being exposed again.