The View from First Place

I hope the Reds fan base isn't becoming like the Red Sox or the Yankees supporters where the team is in first place, yet you wouldn't know it from listening to the vitriol spewing from the fans.  Because I'm afraid that's what the Twitter traffic implies.  On a side note, I swear that's all Twitter, Facebook and blogs are becoming -- a place to vent frustrations, criticize and be negative.  Hopefully I've not fallen into that abyss.  Back to my point, yes last night's 12-9 win was frustrating because the Reds blew leads of 3-0 & 8-2 and Mat Latos struggled mightily; but the operative word in this sentence is "win."  It wasn't pretty but they got the victory, plus increased its lead in the NL Central standings.  The Redlegs are 3 1/2 up on both the Cardinals and the Pirates who lost Saturday and are 3-2 on the current road trip with the finale in Houston to come this afternoon and a possible sweep of the lowly Astros.

So with a 9-game homestand on the horizon against the likes of Pittsburgh, Detroit and Cleveland, let's pause and evaluate now that we're past the 50-game plateau in the season.  Reds third baseman Scott Rolen said this spring after 50 games is when you get an accurate sense of where a team is headed.  Richard Justice (@richardjustice) of MLB Network & MLB.com tweeted this weekend that since 1995, 70% of those teams leading their division on June 1st made the playoffs.  With the Reds leading the division here on June 3rd, I'd say that's reason enough to be excited.

Certainly, the Reds aren't without questions as we are 2 months out from the trading deadline.  The positives are the pitching (6th in MLB) and defense (MLB rank 9th), especially the bullpen (2nd in MLB) which was ravaged by injuries during Spring Training.  Aroldis Chapman has been lights out having not given up an earned run yet this year.  My only concern is some of the off the field situations that have come up recently.  You can read about those here, here and here. If I were the Reds, I'd put this guy under 24-hour watch (joking, sort of).  He is vital to this team's success.

The offense is another matter.  Friday night during the telecast, Thom Brennaman pointed out that 41% of the Reds runs come via the home run ball and are just 7-17 when they don't hit one out.  That would explain why they are in first place despite being 23rd in the MLB in hitting (.243) and 19th in runs scored (217).  They have improved some in hitting with runner's in scoring position (.224 AVG, 12th in NL, 24th MLB).  Remember the batting average was just .195 a week ago.  So while there are signs of improvement, the stats would point to the team looking for offensive help come the trading deadline should they stay in contention.  However that is easier said than done.  After dealing for Mat Latos and Sean Marshall in the offseason the club has few top minor league prospects to trade.  Plus, the two areas of concern offensively in the offseason, third base and left field, have looked better lately with the way both Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey have been hitting the ball.  The obvious area for improvement is the leadoff spot in the batting order where the Reds rank dead last in all of baseball in average (.166) and on-base percentage (.201).  However, there aren't that many quality lead-off men to begin with and even fewer would likely be available in a trade.  So what do they do come July 31st?  My guess is they'll try to address the bench.  Collectively the team ranks 8th in pinch hitting (.274 AVG), but the lack of a left-handed bat off the bench is bound to hurt in September or in the playoffs.  I also think they'll add a bullpen arm.  You can never have too much pitching and it's certainly easier to trade for a reliever than it is a starter at the deadline.