Spring Training Anticipation

Greetings and let me be the last to wish you a Happy New Year.  If you are a true Reds fan, 2012 must be the most anticipated since 1995 -- the year Cincy won the NL Central and reached the NL Championship Series before succumbing to the eventual World Champion Atlanta Braves.

I categorize the upcoming season as the most anticipated based on the offseason moves the Reds organization has made, arguably it's most productive in quite some time.  The official signing of relief pitcher Ryan Madson and outfielder Ryan Ludwick combined with the Reds trade with San Diego for starting pitcher Mat Latos and the Cubs for reliever Sean Marshall, makes this team --at least on paper-- a legitimate playoff contender.  One not just good enough to win the division, but capable of winning a playoff series or two, or three.  Sure there are some question marks and health is always key, but if the last two seasons have proven anything; it's that October is not just a right of passage for only the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies.

The lineup is formidable.  Led by Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, it's basically the same team that put up the second most runs in the National League last year.  The key to 2012?  Consistency from Jay Bruce and fewer strikeouts from outfield mates Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey.  Bruce's overall 2011 numbers were good (256 Avg, 32 HR, 97 RBI).  But it masks another yo-yo type season in which he looked superhuman in May (.342/12/33) and a mere mortal in others (.217/2/7 in June).  Stubbs cannot afford to duplicate last year's franchise record of 205 strikeouts.  He won't have the pressure of hitting lead-off and he by God better learn how to bunt for base hits.  Heisey has long been a fan favorite, but his 78 Ks in only 279 at-bats means the Reds outfield projects to a trio that combines for 500 swings-and-misses.  The signing of Ludwick gives the team insurance should Heisey stumble, plus there are other organizational options in Todd Frazier and minor leaguer Denis Phips.

Something that's gone overlooked this offseason is how much the team is relying on short stop Zack Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco.  Both rookies need to hold their own offensively but more importantly must anchor the defense.  Most baseball people will tell you, championship teams are strong up the middle defensively.  Cozart passed the test (.324/2/3), but it was only 11 games before injury cut short his season.  Mesoraco struggled in 50 at-bats (.180 avg) but he showed power (3 doubles, 2 HR).  However he also committed 3 errors in 16 games.  Having Ryan Hanigan to learn from and share half the catching duties should help take pressure off of the Pennsylvania native.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.  Most of the Reds offseason moves were in effort to improve it.  Both the starting rotation and the bullpen.  As previously chronicled, Latos gives Cincinnati another power arm to partner with Johnny Cueto at the front of the rotation.  Health is of primary importance-- especially coming out of Spring Training.  The team doesn't have a much depth as year ago and played the first month without Cueto and Homer Bailey while Bronson Arroyo had mono and battled it throughout much of the season.  If the rotation is healthy, it has to pitch deep into games, even in April.  A season ago the Reds bullpen was spent by mid-May and some were likely out of gas by September (i.e. Logan Ondrusek and Nick Masset).  Adding Madson to replace Francisco Cordero at the closer position gives the team a shutdown guy who can get the job at the same rate as Cordero without most of the nail-biting antics.  Marshall is capable of giving Madson a breather after a string of successive games but mostly he secures the 8th inning, something that became a revolving door late in the year.  If the starters can go deeper into games consistently combined with the additions of Madson and Marshall to the bullpen, it might help preserve Masset, Ondrusek and Jose Arredondo -- allowing them to dominate the middle innings.  The wild card in all this is Aroldis Chapman.  He'll head to Spring Training looking to win a spot in the rotation, and opportunity with less pressure with the addition of Latos.  It's also possible, though unlikely, he could head back to the pen where the burden would also be less as mentioned previously.

Bottom line, it's a team that should succeed based soley on the average numbers this roster has put up previously.  Not anticipating guys to get better or have career years.  For the first time, as a Reds supporter and observer, I'm not afraid of the big bad Phillies, Cardinals, Braves, Brewers, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers or Angels.  Bring 'em on! And when's the last time you could say that.