A Year Later, Reds Realize Roster Needed Re-shaping

Well, I think the 2011 Reds season can only be described as a disappointment.  Cincinnati's 79-83 record was the club's 10th losing season in the last 11.  The question that will linger throughout the offseason is are the Reds closer to the team that won the 2010 NL Central Division, or the one that just finished under 500 in 3rd place?  We won't know that answer until this time next year.
 
Re-shaping the Reds roster is something that should have been done last offseason.  During the final pre-game radio show with Reds manager Dusty Baker, Hall of Fame broadcaster Marty Brenneman stated nobody questioned the Reds for keeping the status quo last winter.  Really?  Because I did.  Sadly it was before I started this blog.  I told anyone who would listen the team needed to go out and trade some of their minor league prospects to fortify its starting pitching.  The playoff series with Philadelphia last year proved it needed a top of the rotation starter.  Someone like Zack Greinke.  But where the Reds were hesitant to act, the Brewers stepped up, went all in and the addition of Greinke helped Milwaukee supplant the Reds atop the division.  Now while it's likely first baseman Prince Fielder will fly the Brew Crew via free agency after this season, Milwaukee will still be formidable next year with Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, and Shaun Marcum in the rotation and Ryan Braun anchoring the lineup.

Starting pitching (along with clutch hitting) was a big reason the Reds struggled this year.  Aside from the emergence of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, nobody stepped up.  Reds starters were 50-54 this season with 4.47 earned run average (ERA).  In 2010 they were 57-44.  How much better would this club have been with Cueto, Greinke and Leake at the front of the rotation?  Sure they were counting on Bronson Arroyo.  He was coming off 3 seasons of at least 15 wins.  But after going 9-12 with a 5.07 ERA, how confident are you Arroyo will bounce back?  Here are a couple quotes that I think are very telling.  Baker said, "You want quality, not quantity."  Pitching Coach Bryan Price added, "We've got plenty of candidates to pitch 4 and 5 (spots in the rotation).  But I think we've really got to make an effort to identify somebody to be number 2 quality or to fill that role."

What do I think this says?  Frankly it's a message from the manager and the pitching coach to management that we need another top of the rotation guy to go along with Cueto.  It allows Leake to settle in as the number 3 guy in the rotation, you can drop Arroyo to the 4 spot and then ease in Aroldis Chapman as the 5th starter.  Or you could pitch Homer Bailey 4th and Arroyo 5th.  It's also a message to Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood -- and even Bailey to a degree -- of "We gave you a chance and you didn't make the most of it, so now we're going to look outside the organization."

Whom my the Reds target?  Probably someone like Tampa Bay's James Shields, who the club made a play for at the trade deadline.  As Price said, "It's not inexpensive.  It's a challenge.  Those guys aren't sitting all over the place."  Will the Reds be aggressive and make a bold move such as the Brewers did last offseason?  We'll just have to wait and see.  But with the clock ticking on the contracts of Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, the Reds only have a year or two before its window of opportunity closes.