Reds are D.O.A.

The Reds may be sending four position players to Tuesday's All-Star Game for the first time since 1976, but it is by no means the sign of a banner first-half of the season.  Instead, Sunday's late-inning collapse in Milwaukee completed a 2-5 road trip for the Reds and likely put the final nail in the coffin for 2011.

Consider this is an open plea to Reds General Manager Walt Jocketty -- don't try to salvage this season.  Whatever moves you make, do it with 2012 in mind.  Don't tell me how the Reds are only four games out of first or that there's plenty of season left.  This team sits at 45-47, in 4th place, and haven't won two in a row since sweeping a three-game set from the Dodgers June 13-15.  Their Opening Day starter and projected ace is in the minors for a second time this year.  Their center fielder is striking out so much, he's threatening to make Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn look like Dave Kingman.  To cure what ails these Reds, Jocketty would have to bring in Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, Felix Hernandez and Heath Bell -- and he'd have to trade half of the 40 man roster to do it.

Let's be realistic.  Does anyone in their right mind believe a team below five hundred that hasn't won two in a row in nearly a month can climb over four teams to win the division?  No, keep your coveted trade chips and use them to address the needs of this team not only for this year, but for seasons to come.  

In order to truly contend before Opening Day 2012, the Reds must find a lead-off hitter, add another top of the line starter, a middle of the order bat and possibly a late-inning reliever.  Does Jocketty need to address all those needs via a trade?  Not necessarily.  Some of those answers could come from within, which is why it's time to see if Chris Heisey and Zack Cozart are everyday players.  Plus they must decide where guys in the minors like Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco figure in the team's long-term plans.  If Alonso can't play left field -- then move him for a piece you need.  If Francisco projects out to be a strikeout machine like Drew Stubbs, then ship him to bring in another piece of the puzzle.  The same must be asked of Frazier.  Is he the future at third base or left field?  Where does Aroldis Chapman settle?  Starter or reliever?  Is Travis Wood the pitcher we saw last season or this season?  Will Homer Bailey ever find the consistency and live up to the promise forecasted for him when he was drafted?  It's imperative this team properly evaluate their own talent in order to re-shape its roster going forward.

The only thing that seems for certain is Devin Mesoraco is the catcher of the future.  Whether that's this year or next year remains to be seen.  Ramon Hernandez could be a valuable trade chip come the deadline, but if they hold on to him and let him walk as a free agent, it's likely he could be viewed as type A and the Reds would get a number one draft pick as a result.  It's important for a mid-market franchise like the Reds to continue to re-stock the farm system.  Which is why they also have to be open to a deal with Brandon Phillips.  As much as I and all of Reds Country loves Brandon, the team has a $12 M option on him and if they're not able to sign him long term, his trade value right now has never been higher.

Bottom line the next few weeks could be interesting.  I don't expect this team to throw in the towel -- even if I have.  If nothing else these young players (and believe me, this is still a very young team) have learned valuable lesson -- how to live up to expectations.  Some times you have to take a step back before you can take two steps forward.  Thus the story of the 2011 Reds.