Quiet on Reds Trade Front & Here's Why

As MLB's non-waiver trading deadline ticks down, the two trades that stand out for Reds fans has to be outfielder Hunter Pence to the Phillies and pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians.  In looking at what each team gave up in those respective deals, it's easy to criticize the Cincinnati organization for not pulling the trigger.  Two things to keep in mind though, first, the team is still in 4th place, with a losing record and 6.5 games out of 1st.  Second, we don't know what Houston and Colorado were asking in return for Pence and Jimenez.  Keep in mind the Astros and Rockies received the top two prospects from the Phillies and Indians respectively.  So translate that to the Reds.  That likely equals Aroldis Chapman and Devin Mesoraco.  Throw in the likelihood that Yonder Alonso and either Homer Bailey or Travis Wood would be involved in a trade for a Jimenez or Pence, and I think you can see why the Reds didn't pull the trigger.

Let's hypothetically say the deal for Jimenez would have been Chapman, Mesoraco, Bailey and Alonso.  You're losing a key member of your current bullpen (and possible starter down the road) as well as your projected future catcher for next year and years to come.  The loss of Bailey is offset by receiving Jimenez and Alonso has yet to play in left and is better suited for 1st base to begin with.  But with Joey Votto ensconced at that position, Alonso needed to be moved to bring in a piece the team needs anyway.  So if you're in general manager Walt Jocketty's shoes, you're ok giving up Bailey and Alonso but not Chapman and Mesoraco.  If you're Walt, you're salivating at the thought of constructing a rotation consisting of Cueto, Jimenez and Chapman.  My guess is if you were Jocketty, you'd try and counter that offer with Edinson Volquez (who I personally feel is a lost cause) and last year's number one pick, catcher Yasmani Grandal who's currently at Double A Carolina.  Rockies G.M. Dan O'Dowd respectfully declines and that's why Jimenez likely isn't in a Reds uniform.

A trade with Houston for Pence would cost the Reds just as much; and with the Astros being in your own division, you don't want your prized prospects coming back to haunt you.  Dealing within the division anymore is a risky proposition.

My best guess is the Reds do nothing at the deadline and the re-making of this roster begins this offseason. In the meantime, the organization will hope that Johnny Cueto continues to progress as an ace, Bailey will finally find some consistency, and Jay Bruce will resemble the player that earned him Minor League Player of the Year honors in 2007.  If the fortunes of those three alone improve, it offsets not trading for Pence or Jimenez.